ECONOMIC SURVEY 2009-10

The fiscal year 2009-10 began as a difficult one. There was a significant slowdown in the growth rate in the second half of 2008-09, following the financial crisis that began in the industrialized nations in 2007 and spread to the real economy across the world. The growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008-09 was 6.7 per cent, with growth in the last two quarters hovering around 6 per cent. There was apprehension that this trend would persist for some time, as the full impact of the economic slowdown in the developed world worked through the system. It was also a year of reckoning for the policymakers, who had taken a calculated risk in providing substantial fiscal expansion to counter the negative fallout of the global slowdown. Inevitably, India’s fiscal deficit increased from the end of 2007-08, reaching 6.8 per cent (budget estimate, BE) of GDP in 2009-10. A delayed and severely subnormal monsoon added to the overall uncertainty. The continued recession in the developed world, for the better part of 2009-10, meant a sluggish export recovery and a slowdown in financial flows into the economy. Yet, over the span of the year, the economy posted a remarkable recovery, not only in terms of overall growth figures but, more importantly, in terms of certain fundamentals, which justify optimism for the Indian economy in the medium to long term.

The real turnaround came in the second quarter of 2009-10 when the economy grew by 7.9 per cent. As per the advance estimates of GDP for 2009-10, released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), the economy is expected to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2009-10, with the industrial and the service sectors growing at 8.2 and 8.7 per cent respectively. This recovery is impressive for at least three reasons. First, it has come about despite a decline of 0.2 per cent in agricultural output, which was the consequence of sub-normal monsoons. Second, it foreshadows renewed momentum in the manufacturing sector, which had seen continuous decline in the growth rate for almost eight quarters since 2007-08. Indeed, manufacturing growth has more than doubled from 3.2 per cent in 2008-09 to 8.9 per cent in 2009-10. Third, there has been a recovery in the growth rate of gross fixed capital formation, which had declined significantly in 2008-09 as per the revised National Accounts Statistics (NAS). While the growth rates of private and Government final consumption expenditure have dipped in private consumption demand, there has been a pick-up in the growth of private investment demand. There has also been a turnaround in merchandise export growth in November 2009, which has been sustained in December 2009, after a decline nearly twelve continuous months. 1.3 The fast-paced recovery of the economy underscores the effectiveness of the policy response of the Government in the wake of the financial crisis. Moreover, the broad- based nature of the recovery creates scope for a gradual rollback, in due course, of some of the measures undertaken over the last fifteen to eighteen months, as part of the policy response to the global slowdown, so as to put the economy back on to the growth path of 9 per cent per annum.

For further information, please click the link: http://www.indiabudget.nic.in/es2009-10/chapt2010/chapter01.pdf